The Art of Thinking Clearly by Rolf Dobelli
I will be serially doing abstracts of the marvelous Rolf Dobelli’s book, The Art of Thinking Clearly. I enjoyed the book. I ‘ll do a chapter at a time. I enjoyed the book. I ‘ll do a chapter at a time.
Chapter 1
WHY YOU SHOULD VISIT CEMETERIES: Survivorship Bias
In daily life, because triumph is made more visible than failure, we systematically overestimate our chances of succeeding. As an outsider, we succumb to an illusion, and we overlook how minuscule the probability of success really is. We are victims of Survivorship Bias, which simply means this: people systematically overestimate their chances of success.
We should guard against it by frequently visiting the graves of once-promising projects, investments, and careers. It is a sad walk, but one that should clear one’s mind.
