DOES HARVARD MAKE YOU SMARTER?: Swimmer’s Body Illusion
Professional swimmers don’t have perfect bodies because they train extensively. Rather, they are good swimmers because of their physiques. How their bodies are designed is a factor for selection and not the result of their activities. Similarly, female models advertise cosmetics and thus, many female consumers believe that these products make you beautiful. But it is not the cosmetics that make these women model-like. Quite simply, the models are born attractive and only for this reason are they candidates for cosmetics advertising. As with the swimmers’
bodies, beauty is a factor for selection and not the result. For example, Harvard has the reputation of being a top university. Many highly successful people have studied there. Does this mean that Harvard is a good school? We don’t know. Perhaps the school is terrible, and it simply recruits the brightest students around.
Whenever we confuse selection factors with results, we fall prey to the swimmer’s body illusion.
Be wary when you are encouraged to strive for certain things – be it abs of steel, immaculate looks, a higher income, a long life, a particular demeanour or happiness. You might fall prey to the swimmer’s body illusion. Before you decide to take the plunge, look in the mirror – and be honest about what you see.
See also Halo Effect (ch. 38); Outcome Bias (ch. 20); Self-Selection Bias (ch. 47)
LONDON, July 4 (Reuters) – Zimbabwe hopes to get its proposal to clear debt arrears with multilateral lenders signed off by December, enabling it to start talks with bilateral sovereign lenders. Finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa said Government is looking forward to the three multilateral lenders to formally adopt the country’s debt clearance strategy when they meet in December. In early March, the government agreed to major reforms including compensation for evicted white farmers and a big reduction in public sector wages in an effort to woo back international lenders.
The Southern African country’s foreign debt stands at $8.3 billion, of which $1.8 billion is arrears. Zimbabwe is one of the few countries in arrears with the IMF. Countries are required to clear all arrears with multinational lenders before engaging in talks with other creditors. Zimbabwe owes around $110 million to the International Monetary Fund, which it hopes to clear against a special drawing rights (SDRs) allocation of around $130 million, Chinamasa said at a briefing at London-based think-tank Chatham House.
It is hard to pinpoint the exact moment in the last eight days at which Britain’s politics became officially more absurd than America’s. Last week’s Brexit vote, shocking as it was, was just the starting gun. Since then both the Labour and the Conservative party leaderships have collapsed. The “Leave” campaign has swiftly backtracked(paywall) on its promises. Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn, after enduring a stunning no-confidence vote, appeared to compare Israel with the Islamic State. The Conservatives’ Boris Johnson, the cheerleader of Leave and presumed next prime minister, bowed out after beingstabbed in the back by his own sidekick, Michael Gove. And a leaked letter from Gove’s wife exposed the Tory party’s leading figures as little more than the puppets of media barons.
The US primary season was by turns hilarious and horrifying, but it fulfilled its purpose: There are now the requisite two candidates for president, and the one who is a racist liar with no idea of how to govern is pretty unlikely to win. Britain has no credible leadership on any side, nor are there any clues as to where it might emerge. With astounding swiftness, the UK has replaced the US as the political laughingstock of the world.
This compounds the disaster of the referendum itself. If, as some hopeful pundits speculate, Brexit may yet be halted, it will take extraordinary leadership to mollify the pro-Leave voters who will feel cheated. If Brexit goes ahead, it will take equally extraordinary leadership to steer the economy through its impacts, and to negotiate new trade deals with an unforgiving EU and other countries. (Perhaps they should appoint Donald “I make great deals” Trump as chief negotiator.)
When Trump was on the ascendancy in America, many British politicians could hardly hide their smug disdain. How hollow that looks now.—Gideon Lichfield
“I wrote an article on this a few years ago and interviewed a few experts on fraud in non-profits and why it tends to go undetected for so long. One theory was that non-profits are too trusting and assume that people who work for them respect the spirit of charity that the organization is built on. Unfortunately this isn’t always the case and a lack of internal controls combined with the limited staffing typical of non-profits makes it easier for employees in accounts to steal. Accounts payable fraud seems to be among the most prevalent, possibly due to situations where due to staffing limitations, one employee is responsible for too many financial tasks without checks and balances. If you’re interested in reading the article, you can find it here: Fraud in Non-Profits”
The story below illustrates what fraud examiners have always emphasised: When you suspect fraud, the first step is to secure evidence. How do you do that? You don’t have to go it alone. You can’t possibly know everything. Call the experts.
Manunure High School petrol-bombed
HARARE, Newsday (March 30, pg 4) Manunure High School in Kwekwe had its financial records destroyed by fire following a suspected petrol bomb attack at the bursar’s office on Monday night. School Development Commitment Chairman Dickson Zhou confirmed the incident saying receipt books, computers and desks in the bursar’s office were reduced to ashes in the attack which took place around 8 pm.
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